Gold Edges Up From December Low With Focus on Stimulus, Dollar

By Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) -- Gold edged up, recovering from an almost seven-week low, amid caution in markets as investors assessed the outlook for the dollar and the timeline for a U.S. stimulus package.

European equities and U.S. futures were under pressure. Global shares slipped last week after optimism about the $1.9 trillion U.S. aid package, and the so-called reflation trade, faltered into a long weekend, with U.S. markets shut Monday for a holiday. Bullion recovered from earlier losses “amid broad risk-off sentiment,” said Margaret Yang, a strategist at DailyFX.

“Market sentiment is tilted toward the cautious side after U.S. equities pulled back from their recent highs, despite robust corporate earnings,” Yang said. “As U.S. markets are closed for a public holiday, thinner liquidity conditions could exacerbate price volatility.”

Meanwhile, former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is expected to affirm the U.S.’s commitment to market-determined exchange rates when she testifies on Capitol Hill Tuesday, and she’ll make clear the U.S. doesn’t seek a weaker dollar for competitive advantage, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter. A gauge of the greenback climbed in the past two weeks, putting pressure on gold.

Bullion has fallen more than 3% this year as U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar climbed on hopes that Covid-19 vaccines and more fiscal stimulus will aid an economic recovery. Inflation expectations have increased steadily since March, though too slowly to compensate for the recent spike in bond rates, diminishing gold’s appeal in what has typically been a strong month for the metal in the past decade.

“We expect nominal yields to play some catch-up to the move breakevens have already had, lifting real yields and presenting a headwind for gold prices through 2021,” said Marcus Garvey, head of metals and bulks commodity strategy at Macquarie Group Ltd.

Hedge funds cut their net-long positions by almost a third in the week to Jan. 12, while exchange-traded funds capped the first weekly outflow in four on Friday.

Spot gold added 0.3% to $1,833.81 an ounce by 1:32 p.m. in London, after earlier falling as much as 1.3% to the lowest since Dec. 1. Silver and platinum edged higher, while palladium was little changed. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%.

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