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Even the ECB’s Own Research Shows It Needs to Boost Its TrustBy Bloomberg

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The European Central Bank should do more to persuade the public that it can deliver faster inflation, according to its own research, adding to a sense that the institution’s credibility is at risk.

Researchers who studied consumer expectations found that while euro-area residents largely trust the ECB to rein in strong price growth, they’re less convinced it can boost feeble inflation.

“This finding may be a cause for concern in a low interest rate environment,” Dimitris Christelis, Dimitris Georgarakos, Tullio Jappelli and Maarten van Rooij argued in the paper. “The effectiveness of monetary policy could benefit from investing in the build-up of trust and institutional credibility.”

The research is interesting because the ECB and others consider inflation expectations to be one of the key determinants of future price gains. The Frankfurt-based institution has struggled for years to revive price growth despite controversial tools such as bond purchases and negative rates.

President Christine Lagarde recently had to fend off criticism that the ECB isn’t trusted during a hearing in the European Parliament, and a Commission survey last year found trust in the central bank significantly lagged behind support for the euro. She has launched a wideranging review of strategy.

That could include tweaking its inflation goal of “below, but close to, 2%” -- seen as too vague to send a hard signal of the ECB’s intentions -- to precisely 2% to counter any expectations it might reduce its stimulus too soon.

To contact the reporter on this story: Piotr Skolimowski in Frankfurt at pskolimowski@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Gordon at pgordon6@bloomberg.net, Brian Swint

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