Video Editor: Mohd Irshad Alam and Vishal Kumar
During the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, “Modi wave” started from western Uttar Pradesh and took the form of a "Tsunami" by the time it reached Purvanchal (Eastern UP). Owing to Modi’s brand and the Muzaffarnagar riots, the electorate in western UP was extremely polarised. But the scenario has changed in last five years. Polarisation still exists but an alliance between the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party has ensured that the arithmetic isn’t the same this time around.
The alliance has brought together the Muslim voters and the traditional vote bank of the SP and BSP. Hence, it is safe to say that the gathbandhan is going to be a strong competition for the BJP in more than half of the seats in phase two of the polls. In one seat, even the Congress can be quite competitive.
In phase two, the constituencies of Bulandshahr, Agra, Fatehpur Sikri, Aligarh, Hathras, Nagina, Amroha and Mathura are going to polls. SP and the Rashtriya Lok Dal have fielded one candidate each in these seats while the BJP and Congress have candidates in all the eight seats. In 2014, BJP won all eight of these seats.
Out of these eight seats, four – Agra, Hathras, Bulandshahr and Nagina – are reserved for Scheduled Caste (SC).
First, let us analyse the city of the Taj Mahal, Agra. Last time, the BJP bagged this seat because the Dalit voters supported them. But this time, owing to the anger of Dalit community, the BJP has fielded SP Singh Baghel in place of the incumbent MP Ramshankar Katheria.
The BSP has never won this seat, but support of the SP has given them a chance. But, since it is an urban seat with over three lakh voters from the Baniya community, the advantage is with the saffron party.
Very close to Agra, is the constituency of Fatehpur Sikri. This constituency is considered to be a stronghold of the Rajputs. The candidature of UP Congress chief Raj Babbar has made the contest here interesting. It is because of him that the BJP is facing a serious challenge here.
The BJP has fielded Rajkumar Chahar instead of incumbent MP Babulal. For the gathbandhan, this is yet another constituency where the BSP is hoping that support of the SP will improve their position. But most pundits agree that the party to beat on this seat is the Congress.
Bulandshahr made the headlines in December 2018 after the alleged cow slaughter case, which led to an altercation between locals and the cops. Riding on the chariot of nationalism, the BJP seems to be hoping that polarisation will be enough to defend this seat.
The BSP, on the other hand, is trying hard to disturb the political equation of the BJP. Bulandshahr has 77 percent Hindu and 22 percent Muslim electorate. After the alleged cow slaughter case, Muslims seem to be standing firmly behind the alliance. But BJP’s problem isn’t just consolidation of Muslim votes, it is also the apparent anger against the performance of their incumbent MP and candidate Bhola Singh.
The constituency of Nagina has close to 6.25 lakh Muslim voters who will play a decisive role. On top of that, there are 3.25 lakh Dalit voters. This gives the BSP candidate Girish Chandra an upper hand.
The BJP on the other hand, has once again placed its bets on the incumbent MP Yashwant Singh, who was accepted even among Dalits in 2014.
The Congress have fielded former MP Omvati, who is quite popular among savarna voters. If the BSP is able to consolidate the Muslim votes, then its victory is assured.
The BJP has fielded Rajveer Singh Diler, who is son of four-time MP Kishan Lal Diler. On the other hand, the SP has fielded Ramji Lal Suman and Congress has fielded Trilokiram Diwakar. On this seat, the winner will be decided by the Dalit and Muslim votes.
With the RLD joining the SP-BSP alliance, the Jats are likely to support SP candidate Ramji Lal Suman. Hence, the Samajwadi Party is likely to win this seat.
There are 3.5 lakh Muslim voters in Aligarh, and yet none of the major parties has fielded a Muslim candidate there. Both the BSP and the Congress have fielded Jat candidates. The BSP’s candidate is Ajit Baliyan, who is a popular leader among Dalits, Muslims and Jats.
On the other hand, the BJP has fielded Satish Kumar Gautam, who is popular among Baniya, Brahmin and Thakur voters. However, the local BJP leaders are reportedly unhappy with him. This could be a decisive factor in battle for Aligarh.
The electorate of Amroha consists of 5 lakh Muslim, 2.5 lakh Dalits and 1 lakh Gurjar voters. Whoever can stitch an alliance between these three vote banks will win the seat easily. BSP’s Danish Ali seems the most likely winner. Incumbent BJP MP Kanwar Singh Tanwar can win only if he is able to woo Dalit votes and ensure that the Muslim votes aren’t consolidated by the BSP.
The Mathura Lok Sabha seat has approximately 4 lakh Jat voters. The Brahmin, Rajput and Dalit electorates have approximately 2.5 lakh voters each. Also, there are about 1.5 lakh Muslim voters.
Despite the influence of the RLD, BJP’s Hema Malini won this seat in 2014. This time, her main rival is RLD’s Narendra Singh. But despite some anti-incumbency, Hema Malini has somewhat maintained her popularity among Jat voters. Hence, it is likely that she will retain her seat.
