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U.S.-China Trade Talks and Turkey Turmoil Dominate Emerging MarketsBy Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) -- The following is a roundup of emerging-markets news and highlights for the week ending April 5.

Highlights:

  • China and the U.S. claimed progress in talks to end their trade war, with President Xi Jinping pushing for a rapid conclusion and President Donald Trump talking up prospects for a “monumental” agreement that may still be some weeks away
    • The trade deal being crafted would give Beijing until 2025 to meet commitments on commodity purchases and allow American companies to wholly own enterprises in the Asian nation, according to three people familiar with the talks
  • The first official glimpse of Saudi Aramco’s financial performance confirms the state-run oil giant can generate profit like no other company on Earth
    • Aramco obtained the fifth-highest investment grade rating at both Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings as the world’s largest oil producer prepares for its debut dollar bond offering
  • The Turkish lira was among the worst performers; U.S. Vice President Mike Pence warned Turkey that its “reckless” move to purchase a Russian missile-defense system risked diminishing the nation’s role within NATO
    • Turkish election officials ordered a recount of hundreds of thousands of invalid votes cast in several parts of Istanbul, as the ruling party of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan contests its apparent defeat in the city where his political career began
  • India’s central bank delivered a back-to-back interest rate cut and fueled speculation of more policy easing after lowering inflation and economic growth forecasts
  • Poland’s ruling party is returning to the controversial topic of World War II reparations from Germany ahead of May’s elections to the European Parliament, calling on its western neighbor to take “responsibility” for the economic costs of its invasion eight decades ago
  • Moody’s Investors Service chose not to update its investment grade rating on South Africa’s sovereign debt or the outlook. Benchmark bond yields dropped to 10 month lows on the news; the rand was among the best performers for the week
  • The Trump administration is examining options for shutting entry points to the U.S. from Mexico in case the president follows through with his threat to close the border
  • Brazil’s Economy Minister Paulo Guedes sparred with lawmakers over a proposed pension reform during a crucial period for the government as it works to build congressional support for the bill

Asia:

  • Sentiment at Asia’s factories stabilized in March as a rebound in China buoys the region; China’s private PMI gauge published by Caixin Media and IHS Markit rose to 50.8 from 49.9 in February
    • China said it will extend a suspension of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. autos and include the opioid fentanyl in a list of controlled substances
    • There is room for People’s Bank of China to cut bank reserve ratios, but it should not make a decision until after the releases of first-quarter economic results, Economic Information Daily cites PBOC adviser Sheng Songcheng as saying
    • The inclusion of Chinese bonds into the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index will lead to more than $100 billion of foreign inflows, putting the nation’s $13 trillion debt market on track to overtake Japan’s as the world’s second largest, analysts say
  • South Korean President Moon Jae-in urged Kim Jong Un to heed calls to return to the negotiating table after talks broke down between the North Korean leader and President Trump
    • South Korea’s exports fell for a fourth month in March, while inflation slowed to the least since July 2016, raising the view that the central bank may cut rates this year
  • India’s top court quashed the central bank’s directive that tightened guidelines on how banks deal with loan defaults
    • The country’s long-term foreign currency debt rating was affirmed by Fitch at BBB-, the lowest investment grade score
  • The baht was among the worst performers; Bank of Thailand Governor Veerathai Santiprabhob said interest rates have been “low for too long”
    • Factors such as the local political situation will likely lead to a continuation of the volatility in the baht, BOT Assistant Governor Alisara Mahasandana said
    • Inflation rate rose to 1.2 percent in March, climbing back into the target range of 1 percent to 4 percent for the first time in five months
    • King Maha Vajiralongkorn revoked royal decorations given to former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra because he fled Thailand after being sentenced to prison, which is “an extremely inappropriate behavior”
    • Army chief slammed Thaksin in a rare briefing
  • Philippine inflation eased to 3.3 percent in March from a year earlier, the slowest pace in 15 months
    • The central bank will consider easing monetary policy only when inflation nears 3 percent, Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo said hours before CPI data
    • World Bank has revised its 2019 growth forecast for the Philippines to 6.4 percent from 6.5 percent and 2020 estimate to 6.5 percent from 6.6 percent
  • Bank Indonesia is keeping interest rates unchanged for the moment given global uncertainties, and will turn to macroprudential policies to support economic growth, Governor Perry Warjiyo said
    • Former central bank chief Burhanuddin Abdullah, who headed the bank between 2003 and 2008, said it’s time for policy makers to consider cutting rates
  • Malaysia’s former premier Najib Razak appeared in court to face seven of 42 corruption and money-laundering charges linked to his role in 1MDB
    • Exports recorded the steepest drop in more than two years in February

EMEA:

  • Russian market reaction was muted after a bipartisan group of U.S. senators reintroduced so-called Deter Act sanctions aimed at Russia
    • Russia’s central bank kept dollar holdings steady in its massive reserves in the third quarter following a $101 billion dump of the global reserve currency in the previous three months
    • The ruble has gained more than any currency in the world this year, and unrivaled carry returns fueled further inflows into ruble assets, making hedge funds the most bullish ever. But the best may be over if implied yields are any indication
  • A TV comedian with no political experience won the most ballots in the first round of voting in Ukraine’s presidential election
  • Abu Dhabi is considering combining Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank PJSC with First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC to create the Gulf region’s largest lender, according to people with knowledge of the matter
  • Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who led Algeria out of civil war to become its longest-serving president, has resigned after throngs of protesters and even his military allies told the ailing president he’d overstayed his welcome
  • South Africa’s gauge measuring sentiment in South Africa’s manufacturing industry fell for third straight month in March as the nation suffered the deepest power cuts in more than a decade
  • For the 16th time since the 1960s, Ghana is wrapping up a financial bailout from the International Monetary Fund and stepping away from the lender’s oversight. Now, it’s up to one of Africa’s perennial overspenders to show that it can stick to a budget
    • Ghana’s central bank maintained its benchmark interest rate at a six-year low of 16 percent, citing some upside risks to the inflation outlook
  • Poland kept borrowing costs unchanged as the central bank tries to iron out differences over whether an $11 billion government fiscal stimulus plan will stoke inflation
    • Poland’s central bank Governor Adam Glapinski dismissed projections by investment banks and a growing minority on the Monetary Policy Council that $11 billion of additional expenditure will stoke inflation and excessively widen the budget deficit. While conceding that there’ll be a small uptick in price growth, he reiterated that borrowing costs may stay unchanged until as far out as 2022
  • Romania is set to resume strict control of money-market liquidity to fight surging consumer prices after the central bank opted to leave its key interest rates unchanged for a seventh meeting

Latin America:

  • Brazil’s real headed for its first weekly gain in three as the government moved ahead with the pension bill, confirming the vote in the first congressional commission will happen on April 17
    • President Jair Bolsonaro met party leaders as he tries to bolster support for pension reform and improve dialogue after Guedes’s conflict-filled hearing at the first committee analyzing the bill
    • Industrial production rose less than expected in February, underscoring the sector’s difficulty in gaining traction as the new government gets off to a rocky start
  • Argentina’s central bank said it won’t allow its key interest rate to drop below 62.5 percent in April, buttressing its campaign to protect the peso
    • Country’s economic outlook deteriorated across the board in March, according to the central bank’s monthly survey of economists
    • Economy Minister said the government isn’t currently discussing changes to the currency non-intervention zone
    • Government has asked the IMF for a waiver so that the upcoming board review will not consider the country’s fiscal data for March, as the data will not be released in time for the meeting
  • Trump said he’d impose tariffs on cars coming from Mexico if the country doesn’t do enough over the next year to stem the flow of drugs crossing the border
    • The Finance Ministry expects Mexico to grow about 1.1 percent to 2.1 percent this year, down from a previous estimate of 1.5 percent to 2.5 percent, and 1.4 percent to 2.4 percent in 2020
    • The opposition accused the government of undermining the legislative branch after he appointed four commissioners at the energy regulator CRE, even though they were rejected twice by the senate
    • Long Mexican peso positions reached a six-year high in the week ended March 26, CFTC data showed
  • Colombia’s peso was among the best performers; the nation is seen as willing and able to reduce the fiscal deficit by S&P Global Ratings, which expects the government to find a way to boost revenue
    • Central bank board members expressed concern about the pace of economic recovery, according to the minutes of the March 22 meeting

--With assistance from Colleen Goko, Selcuk Gokoluk, Netty Ismail and Alex Nicholson.

To contact the reporters on this story: Yumi Teso in Bangkok at yteso1@bloomberg.net;Aline Oyamada in Sao Paulo at aoyamada3@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tomoko Yamazaki at tyamazaki@bloomberg.net, ;Philip Sanders at psanders@bloomberg.net, Cormac Mullen

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