Cases of the Omicron variant in the UK are soon expected to be higher than in some African countries placed on the travel red list, a scientist has warned.
Professor Tim Spector said early data suggests cases of the coronavirus mutation are doubling every two days, putting it on course to overtake some of the 11 countries from where travellers to the UK are now required to quarantine to try to stymie community transmission.
New rules came into force in the early hours of Tuesday, requiring all travellers to take a pre-departure test before heading to England. They will not be able to travel if they test positive.
Prof Spector, professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College London, told BBC Breakfast there was “very little point” in having travel restrictions if case numbers exceeded those in red list countries.
He said: “The official estimates are about 350-odd Omicron cases, and because the current testing is missing a lot of those, it’s probably at least 1,000 to 2,000 I would guess at the moment.
“And we are expecting this to be doubling about every two days at the moment, so if you do your maths – assume it’s 1,000 at the moment, and you think it’s going to be doubling every two days, you can see that those numbers are going to be pretty (high) certainly in about 10 days’ time.
“By that time, we’ll probably have more cases than they will in some of those African countries.
“So I think these travel restrictions do perhaps have their place initially, when cases are really low here and really high in the other country, but when we reach that equilibrium, there’s very little point in having them in my opinion.”
How many Omicron cases have been detected in other countries?
France
Authorities have recorded 25 Omicron cases in France. Of those, 21 were detected in people returning from South Africa, with four local infections.
The first case was detected in the French island territory of Reunion in the Indian Ocean. The man who tested positive was a 53-year-old who had travelled to Mozambique and stopped off in South Africa on the way home.
The first mainland case was detected in an unvaccinated 50-year-old who had returned to Paris from Nigeria.
From Friday, France will close nightclubs for four weeks and widen mandatory mask-wearing to include children aged 12 and under amid a surge of cases.
Germany
There are 15 known Omicron cases in Germany. The first two cases were detected in a pair of travellers who arrived in Munich Airport from a trip to South Africa.
The government has since announced plans to make vaccinations against Covid mandatory in the coming months.
Netherlands
So far, 82 cases have been confirmed in the Netherlands.
Health authorities first revealed that 18 people on a flight from Johannesburg to Amsterdam on Friday, November 26 had the variant, with 61 testing positive for Covid in total.
However, it was later announced that the variant had first been detected in two test samples taken between November 19 and 23. It is not clear whether the pair had recently visited southern Africa.
Italy
Nine Omicron cases have been recorded so far in Italy. The first case was detected in a man who had recently returned to the Naples region from Mozambique.
The country has imposed fresh Covid restrictions, with residents needing a Covid Super Green Pass to enter public venues such as cinemas, restaurants or bars.
The pass shows proof of vaccination or that the person has recovered from the virus within the last six months.
US
At least 30 Omicron cases have been identified in the United States.
Sixteen states have reported cases: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Utah, Washington and Wisconsin.
Despite this, the Delta variant still accounts for 99.9 per cent of new Covid cases in the country, health officials say.
The United States has each day averaged 119,000 cases and almost 1,300 deaths over the last week.
Nigeria
The Nigerian Centres for Disease Control (NCDC) has identified three cases of Omicron. All were linked to travel from South Africa.
However, the data is five days old so the number is likely higher.
South Africa
South Africa, which is where Omicron was first detected, is currently recording an average of 10,628 new Covid cases each day.
Out of 249 cases sequenced in November, 183 were confirmed to be the Omicron variant.
The total number of Omicron cases in the country is likely far higher but not all have been sequenced. Around 90 per cent of all new infections in Johannesburg are now caused by the Omicron strain.
