MANILA, Philippines — The daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila is “steadily declining,” independent analytics group OCTA Research said Saturday.

“The daily growth rate in the NCR (based on the 7-day moving average of new cases) has been decreasing steadily. It has now decreased to 3%, from 5% a day before. Once the daily growth rate becomes negative, new cases in the NCR are decreasing,” OCTA Research fellow Guido David said over Twitter.

According to David, the daily growth rate is “the percentage increase in cases from the previous day, using the 7-day average” of new cases.

Meanwhile, the reproduction number of coronavirus infections in Metro Manila also decreased from 3.77 as of January 10 to 3.22 as of January 11, according to the OCTA Research fellow.

But David noted that while the decrease in growth rate is "strong evidence that the trend in the NCR appears to be peaking," it is still subject to data backlog and late reports.

“However, if this trend is solid, we should expect between 16k to 18k new cases in the NCR on January 15, 2022, and 15k to 16k on January 16, towards a consistent decrease,” he added.

Metro Manila currently has 147,459 active cases of COVID-19, including 17,081 additional infections recorded on Friday.

The entire country has 265,509 active COVID-19 cases, including 37,207 cases recorded on Friday.

However, the Department of Health earlier said that the actual number of individuals with COVID-19 could be higher than what is being reported, since the daily tally does not include those who test positive in antigen tests.

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire earlier said that COVID-19 cases may reach their peak by the end of January, and that cases will slowly decline once they hit their peak.


Metro Manila’s daily COVID-19 cases may be peaking — OCTA Research

Most new COVID-19 cases logged in NCR — Octa Research